Poslano Petek, 17th April 2009 od admin
Euro Falls Despite Risk Appetite; AUD, NZD Falls on China’s
Sluggish Growth
The Euro had another poor week, losing to the pound and greenback
. The correlation with risk appetite was apparently broken for
this week because even though stocks rallied, the Euro struggled
. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars also took a hit from the
release of China’s poor growth performance in Q1, which declined
from an annual rate of 6.8% to 6.1%. China is a main importer of
goods from Australia and New Zealand, and therefore a shrinking
Chinese economy negatively affects these two countries.
NZD/USD Decline Week Brings Pair to Possible Gartley.
The Kiwi had a second swing-down since the rally that started in
April. China’s decelerating growth rate caught attention of the
market, which pressured the commodity currency even more since
it does a big portion of exporting to China. The decline however
may not be sustainable. A breakdown below 0.5500 would indicate
such strength. However before that happens, there is resistance
at the 0.5650 level, which if held up would be a completion of a
gartley, indicating further rise in the pair.
USD/CHF Channel Support Holds;
Last week we noted careful watch at the channel support and see
if the price action can break it. If it can, our short-term
gartley pattern would work out. However, it didn’t. Instead the
support held and there is further retracement in a channel. This
week ends with the 3rd wave up in this retracement channel. Did
the market exhaust its rally yet? This is possible. However, it
is also possible that prices will rally further to 78.6%
retracement at the 1.1800 level. The second scenario is prefered
because we would be able to put a tighter stop if we decide to
go short from this level instead of the current 1.1700. If a
decline does follow after the 1.8000 resistance, we would still
need to see if it breaks support and than a previous minor low.
Some may want to short now at the resistance, but the fact that
its a rising resistance and a shrinking target makes this less
appealing of a setup.
EUR/JPY’s Possible Gartley
Technical Setup:
A possible gartley is forming here but we need to becareful and
monitor the price action. Today’s “doji” should not be
considered as a reversal signal because it is Friday, and the
liquidity was low. Unless there was a major news announcement
and the bulls and bears fought throughout the day. This was not
such a day. also notice the possible formation of a classic 3-pt
bullish divergence with the stochastic, strong suggestion of a
reversal. A possible target if the reversal indeed follows is at
1.34-1.35 area, which matches the previous resistance, and would
be 61.8% retracement of the down swing.
USD/CAD
Technical Setup:
There is a 6-month development of an ascending triangle, and
there might be a break of the uptrending support this week.
However, this should not be immediately considered as a signal
for a down-trend as the overall market condition is still that
of consolidation. There may be a retest of the powerline, in
which case we will be looking for a strong rejection (at around
the 1.2400 area). If the market indeed bounces off the line as
resistance, a viable target may be 1.8000, which is support from
previous low.
