Forex Trgovanje

Poslano: Petek, 27th Marec 2009 Avtor: admin

US Economy Sees Improved Fundamentals
There was a sense of optimism on Wall St. and equity markets
globally this week. Geithner detailed the US Treasury’s plans to
buy up “toxic” assets in the continuing effort to relieve banks’
troubled balance sheets without nationalizing them. Markets
reacted well to his statements to begin the week. As far as
economic data, the US saw some alleviating figures as well.
Existing home sales on Monday surprised forecasts and improved,
while Tuesday’s house price index grew instead of the forecasted
decline. The Richmond Fed Index also retreated from the horrible
readings of -51 to -20. Durable goods figures, coming in
Wednesday, was another big surprise, growing 3.4% instead of the
predicted -2.2% pace. New home sales also improved instead of an
anticipated decline. Finally Friday’s Umich Consumer Sentiment
index also improved faster than economists thought.

The currency market however showed continuing consolidations and
retracements for many pairs that have recently been initiating
new trends. Pairs such as EUR/GBP, AUD/USD, and USD/CHF are
retracing last week’s moves, while some others such as USD/CAD
and GBP/USD are developing congestion patterns for either
continuation or some further retracement as well. Let’s start
and take a look at the two pairs we focused on in last week’s
“Looking Ahead”.

EUR/GBP Breaks Below Triangle in Retracement
as mentioned last week, the EUR/GBP was looking at a retracement
if the price action breaks below the descending triangle with
flat bottom. The market then sold it down to the 0.9150 support
zone established last week. Another rally in the second half of
the week brought it back up to that triangle bottom level, which
now serves as resistance after broken as support. This also
coincided with the 78.6% retracement of the run down. If this is
a simple “ABC” retracement in a primary uptrend, there may be
some more decline though it should not go below 0.9100 as a
standard Elliott Wave. There may be some support even before
that, at the 0.9150 - 0.9200 area.

AUD/USD Stays in Consolidation; Possible Gartley
We saw last week’s triangle broken on the upside. However a
continuation was stopped short at 0.7100, and there was further
consolidation this week. It should be noted that triangles often
DO develop into other consolidation patterns. It may be a bit
premature, but this pairs price action is forming a Gartley
pattern which reinforces the possbility of bullish bias.

USD/CHF: Retraces Run-Down Back up to Near Resistance
The USD/CHF consolidated last week in a sideways channel. This
channel was broken this Friday on the upside with a rally on
Friday, showing a retracement of the previous run-down. This
retracement rally is meeting very short-term resistance at the 1
.1460 area. The intermediate resistance is between the 1.1500 and
1.1600 area (50% retracement of run-down). We will continue to
monitor this pair in its recent decline, which we saw coming in
the previous couple of weeks.

USD/CAD: Watch for Consolidation Break

Technical Setup:
The USD/CAD is supported by upwards sloping demand line that
extends back to 10.14.08. In the other direction, there is a
less significant short term resistance at 1.2450, which the pair
is testing now. A clean break of this resistance (at least past
1.2500, without rejection), may signal a rally to head towards 1
.3000. A clear break below the support will be an even greater
signal of a decline towards the 1.1800 area.

CHF/JPY: Confirming a Breakout

Technical Setup:
We mentioned at the end of February that the CHF/JPY pair once
again is testing intermediate resistance (on a daily chart). We
also noticed that this pair has been trending on a monthly basis
, making the turns at the beginning of each month since November.
However, we mentioned that the Yen was becoming vulnerable due
to the frail Japanese economy, and therefore became cautious
about this range trade setup. This caution was prudent, as the
resistance broke this week. The set up now turns into a trend
following one with the breakout as a signal. We saw on Friday a
rather big decline back towards below the broken powerline,
which is good because we need to see if the market is truly
ready to support this new trend. Entry after a re-test is the
conservative way to go. On the 2H timeframe (not shown here),
the decline brought the RSI to oversold levels so this may be a
time to re-enter into the uptrend, although a more cautious
entry should wait for some affirming candlesticks. This entry
should also only be made if the price action brings the pair
back up above the mentioned powerline to make sure the breakout
wasn’t simply a clearout ahead of a decline back into the range.
On a rally, the 90.00 area would be the first target, with the
93.50 area being the more aggressive one.

Komentarji (0)

Poslano: Petek, 20th Marec 2009 Avtor: admin

USD/CAD Ends up Completing Head and Shoulder; 1.3000 Holds
There was a rally towards 1.3000 in February. Price action halted
at this resistance and developed a possible head and shoulders
with a break of the neckline ahead of the FOMC announcement.
This was a clue that the market was ready to reverse itself. But
only the clean break and inability to rise back above the
neckline was conclusive enough to signal that the market had
bearish bias. Of course the news disturbance was the trigger for
the subsequent 600 pip drop. The pair ends the week in
consolidation, but further decline see difficulty as it nears
major uptrending support that extends back to 10.14.08.

GBP/USD Rallies Past Major Resistance
We started to monitor the GBP/USD pair closely when it looked to
form a Gartley Pattern. Our initial look was at the 61.8%
retracement area, but the run-down extended to the 78.6% level,
which still loosely fit the description of a Gartley. The end of
this pattern developed into the next reversal pattern, an
inverse head and shoulders. The FOMC announcement came as the H
&S was at its second shoulder, and propelled prices past the
neckline in the following 4 hours. There was a little pause at
the broken neckline, which coincided with an important channel
resistance that extends back to 10.30.08. The rally continued on
Thursday but by Friday, ended up in consolidation around the 1
.4500 area, with 1.4600 as resistance.  Mapping previous uptrend
to the current rally gives us a target at 1.5300, but 1.5000
would be a fair conservative 1st target to scale down any
positions.

USD/CHF: Reaction to FOMC Trumps reaction to SNB Intervention
This pair captures this issue’s main title. In compairng last
week’s reaction to the SNB intervention, this week’s FOMC
announcement definitely showed a more sustained move. The spike
from the SNB news came up to retest the 78.6% retracement area
and was not able to penetrate. Instead, a triangle was formed
with a flat bottom which was broken with a continuation pattern,
These price actions to start the week should alarm the trader of
bearish bias. Of course we know now that the FOMC news
disturbance gave this move a jolt and the USD/CHF fell back
below it’s level prior to the SNB intervention, and broke a
support at around 1.1500, which we saw as a major test for a
downtrend.

In the shorter time frame, the current move may seem to be
exhaustive now. But looking at the daily chart, we see that
further decline to 1.0500 is possible. We have seen in the past
year that this pair labors to rally, but plunges in declines. So
while there may be a short-term pullback, it may lead to further
and possibly sharp decline, with a fair 1st target at 1.0700.

EUR/GBP: Retracement or Consolidation Imminent
Technical Setup:
We did not have a retracement to the 0.9100 area this week, as we
had anticipated. We saw the market reject prices from coming
below 0.9200, resulting in another rally to 0.9500. This level
revisits resistance in late January, early February and is a
psychologically significant number as well. The RSI gives
further clues to the timing of a possible pause to our breakout
rally. On the chart, “a” at 0.9300 is a minor support, while “b”
is the intermediate support we had anticipated a retracement to
test. Therefore, trendfollowers who missed the initial breakout
entry may still have another chance. The timing is important,
and oscillators can give a hint. Consider though, in an uptrend,
the oscillator might give you a clue of resistance conditions,
but may not give you clues in re-entering (other than the
generic 50 level). Yes, a strong uptrend may not give the RSI a
chance to dip back to oversold levels, as this may ironically be
a signal that the uptrend is weak. This can be applied to price
action as well. Meaning, look for re-entry if prices ease back
towards 0.9100, but keep in mind that since the breakout from
that powerline was a strong one and prices have move somewhat
extensively from it in a short period of time, a retracement has
a lesser chance of reaching that “abandoned” powerline.

2-HOUR

The trader who decides to ride this rally despite missing the
initial kickoff, may want to look at the lower time frame for a
short term move. We see in the 2-H chart that the rally indeed
has paused and formed a triangle bottom. A decisive break on the
bottom may signal a longer retracement period, while a break on
top is less revealing until it also breaks th 0.9500 level.

AUD/USD: Sets up Late Entry Signal
Technical Setup:
Our anticipation zone of converging resistance and support was
marked by ranging price actions. After breaking out on the
upside, price action was still a little suspect. Thought
consistent, the rally was marked by short bursts, until the FOMC
announcement propelled the pair upwards on the back of greenback
weakness. This crossed above the intermediate resistance at 0
.6800, and we suspect this level to turn into support. The RSI on
the daily chart shows that conditions are ready for a
consolidation or retracement, just like like EUR/GBP. And much
like the EUR/GBP, the AUD/USD rally also formed a triangle
pattern, which sets up a breakout entry in the direction of the
trend.  Look for a decisive breakout which also breaks above 0
.6950 for a re-entry into the trend. Otherwise, a break to the
downside warrants watchfulness on the intermediate powerline at
0.6800 as a possible support. If that breaks, the 0.6500 area
stands next as support.

Komentarji (0)

Poslano: Petek, 20th Marec 2009 Avtor: admin

EUR-USD
N/A

USD-CHF
Odpor v območju 1,1232 - 1,1284, nato je pričakovan padec vse do 1,1077

GBP-USD
Trenutno izboljšanje naj bi se končalo v območju 1,4701 - 1,4685. Spodnji popravek pri 1,4251 je pričakovan. Pričakovan dvig nad 1,4858

USD-JPY
Trenutni padec naj bi se končal v območju 91,87 ter 93,41. Možen dvig vse do 95,57 ali 96,24. Padec pod 91,82 naj bi preklical ta scenarij

Komentarji (0)

Poslano: Torek, 17th Marec 2009 Avtor: admin

EUR-USD
Korekcijska dejavnost med 1,2852 ter 1,3035 se lahko zavleče za nekaj časa

USD-CHF
Obstaja medvedjasta možnost za padec vse do območja 1,1794 , medtem ko je odpor v območju 1,1853. Po padcu naj bi se vrnilo vse do 1,1878

GBP-USD
N/A

USD-JPY
Padec pod območje 97,77 . Odpor pri območju 98,16 ter 98,20

Komentarji (0)

Poslano: Sobota, 14th Marec 2009 Avtor: admin

Another Round of Bulls vs. Bears
Fundamental releases around the world continue to worsen and risk
aversion still grips market sentiments. This week, there was a
jolt of risk appetite mid-week as China hinted at a very
aggressive fiscal stimulus in order to maintain a 8% annual
growth rate, a very optimistic target as China is facing what
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao calls “unprecedented difficulties”.
Before more details came out, the market already rumored an
extension of this stimulus. However, Wen only elaborated on the
original plan, giving focus to infrastructure investment while
also encouraging the public to spend rather than save. The non
-mention of another round of the stimulus pulled back what risk
appetite the market had in mid-week.

The continuingly poor Non-farm Payroll employment report from the
US government was also a culprit to the end of week risk
aversion. January’s figures were heavily revised higher, and
this month’s figure was worse than forecasted, pushing the
unemployment rate to 8.1%.

Central Bank Decisions
RBA: Instead of cutting rates as economists expected, Australia’s
central bank held rates at 3.25% on Monday, noting that its
economic contraction has not been as severe as in many other
countries. However on Wednesday, the 2008 Q4 GDP release started
to threaten this notion, with a Q4 GDP of -0.5%, and a 2008 GDP
of an anemic 0.3%. Although Autralia is not technically in a
recession, this is the first quarterly contraction in 8 years.

BoC: The Canadian central bank noted its deepening recession
worsened by sharp declines in global demand for the country’s
exports. Monday’s GDP report for 2008 Q4 reported a worse than
expected contraction of 1.0% in the quarter, and 0.8%
contraction for the 2008 year. The BoC followed by slashing its
key interest rate by 50 bps to 0.50%.

ECB: As expected, the European Central Bank slashed the key rate
by 50 bps to its record low at 1.50%.

BoE: The central bank slashed another 50bps as expected, also to
its record low at 0.50%. The bank will no longer have interest
rate policy as an effective tool for stimulating the economy. It
will have to utilize other monetary policy instruments and apply
quantitative easing (basically pumping money into the economy).

All but the RBA cut rates this week, and by 50 basis points.
These expected rate cuts were not of much impact.

USD/CHF Begins Descent; One More Big Test
We have been following this pair’s completion of a 78.6%
retracement. Subsequently we have seen many sell signals
triggered. Listed on the above chart are the different entry
signals that appeared for different type of traders, from the
aggressive to the more conservative. Also, the possibility of a
downtrend was improved by establishment of 3-pt pivot (labeled
in blue, this confirms 1.19000 as a true high thus anchoring a
new bearish trend). Let’s look back and study the signals this
pair provided:

1st: Anticipation of retracement to the 78.6% is a fair entry for
the most aggressive traders.

2nd: A sharp decline broke below a wedge (or ascending triangle)
pattern, signaling that many have picked up on this retracement
and gotten in short positions. However, others found this new
price to be a discount and thus a kickbac ensued.

3rd: The decline met demand at this level (1.1450 - 1.1500),
which pushed the prices back up. This could be considered a
kickback if the high from this rally does not exceed previous
one. Indeed, the rally came back a little pass 78.6% before
another sharp decline. The kickback entry also had an aggressive
trigger at 78.6%, and a more conservative one at the break of
short-term upward support.

4th: This week ended with the pair resting upon intermediate
upward support. This is sort of a “final test” before we can
confirm the end to the bullish momentum, giving way to possible
bearish momentum. This upcoming week will give a clue to weather
the pair passes.

There is also a 5th possible entry. If a breakdown is strong,
this may be met with high demand and thus push the price back
towards the broken support, for yet another kickback. This
doesn’t always happen, and those waiting for this entry may
simply miss the trade. However, note the axiom: It is better to
miss a good trade then prematurely enter a bad one.

GBP/JPY Testing Resistance to Confirm Uptrend
The seesawing of risk appetite and aversion held the GBP/JPY in
range this week. With much of same indication of global
recession from fundamental releases, the market did not find any
reason to break the resistance level at the 141.00-142.00 zone.
The good news for those following the current intermediate
uptrend is that strong demand is coming in at higher prices
(thus the upward support, and forming a right angle, ascending
triangle)). As these supply and demand levels converge, it will
be important to watch upcoming week’s price actions to see if
demand can sustain if the pair is above the current resistance
level.  (Basically watch out for a breakout next week, with a
first possible target at 148-150 level, and a more aggressive
one at around 167.00(50.00% retracement). Otherwise a breakdown
below 136.00 may signal a rundown to 129.00 in the short term.)

GBP/USD Gartley Foreshadows Dollar Weakness

Technical Setup:
The GBP/USD pair have been channeling downwards after sharper
declines of 2008. A possible Elliott Wave count puts the recent
choppy rundown to be a terminal wave. With that premise, it is a
matter of time that the pair has a major rally. This week’s
completion of a classically qualified Gartley pattern gives us a
hint that this time may be nearing, hinting USD weakness. One
note however is that the pattern was completed in a relatively
short period of time (1 month) compared to the downtrend (about
13 months). Therefore, the Gartley pattern doesn’t foreshadow
this “significant rally” I just mentioned, but rather,  an
intermediate rally. The appropriate targets may be 1.5000, and
more aggressively at 1.5400 with possible drawdown to 1.3500.

EUR/CHF: Breakout of Triangle, Caution Imminent Kickback

Technical Setup:
The breakout below the triangle formation on February 16th
triggered a sell signal. So far there has been a very dull and
choppy decline. Looking at the underlying market conditions, one
should caution a possible short to intermediate term rally,
since price is at 78.6% retracement, and a downward support. The
RSI is also eyeing a bullish divergence. Of course all these
“warnings” basically caution that price action is showing
oversold and retracement support levels, applicable only if the
pair is to stay in consolidation. Thus  for if the EUR/CHF pair
stays in consolidation mode, these are signals to buy.
Anticipate some to act on this, and consequently a possible
short term rally, with a fair target at 1.4900 and slightly more
aggressively at 1.5100. A possible trigger is a failure of the
powerline at 1.4650 to hold as resistance as the market is
retesting that level to end this week.

Komentarji (0)

Poslano: Petek, 13th Marec 2009 Avtor: admin

Od 8.3.2009 naprej veljajo novi spreadi

EUR/USD -> 2 (fixni spread)
USD/JPY -> 2 (fixni spread)
GBP/USD -> 4 (fixni spread)
USD/CHF -> 5 (fixni spread)
EUR/CHF -> 4 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 4 (drseči novi spread)
EUR/JPY -> 4 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 4 (drseči novi spread)
GBP/JPY -> 8 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 5 (drseči novi spread)
EUR/GBP -> 4 (fixni spread)
USD/CAD -> 5 (fixni spread)
AUD/USD -> 5 (fixni spread)
EUR/CAD -> 8 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 7 (drseči novi spread)
EUR/AUD -> 9 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 8 (drseči novi spread)
GBP/CHF-> 8 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 8 (drseči novi spread)
CHF/JPY -> 5 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 5 (drseči novi spread)
AUD/CAD -> 8 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 8 (drseči novi spread)
AUD/JPY -> 6 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 5 (drseči novi spread)
NZD/USD -> 4 (fixni spread)
CAD/JPY -> 6 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 6 (drseči novi spread)
NZD/JPY -> 8 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 8 (drseči novi spread)
GBP/AUD -> 20 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 9 (drseči novi spread)
AUD/NZD -> 12 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 10 (drseči novi spread)
USD/SGD -> 8 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 7 (drseči novi spread)
USD/ZAR -> 200 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 150 (drseči novi spread)
ZAR/JPY -> 6 (prejšni spread) -> as low as 5 (drseči novi spread)

Komentarji (0)

Poslano: Četrtek, 12th Marec 2009 Avtor: admin

VT WEB TRADER beta je izšla z namenom, da bi postali samim uporabnikom trgovalne postaje VT Trader 1/2 bolj dostopni.
Tako je podjetje CMS razvilo orodje za dostop do Vašega računa preko WEB trgovalne platforme!

VT WEB trader je zaenkrat še v fazi razvijanja, tako da je dostopen samo preko demo računa.
V kolikor še nimate, demo računa ga lahko odprete tukaj

VT WEB TRADER je dosegljiv na spodnjem naslovu:
http://web.vt-trader.net

Dostop je možen preko internetnih brskalnikov, mobilnih telefonov, dlančnikov itd …

Komentarji (0)

Poslano: Četrtek, 12th Marec 2009 Avtor: admin

EUR-USD
Izboljšanje je še vedno nedotaknjeno v trikotni konfiguraciji.  Dvig vse do 1,2907 oziroma 1,3023. Pričakovana podpora v območju 1,2775. Padec je možen vse do območja 1,2775 - 1,2731

USD-CHF
Podpora pri 1,1523 ali 1,1471. Popravek navzgor vse do 1,1731. Jasen premor od 1,1417 je medvedjast

GBP-USD
Trgovanje višje od 1,3958, podpora je ponujena pri 1,3806 ali 1,3765. Ustavite izgubo pod območjem 1,3724

USD-JPY
Odpor pri 97,73. Podaljšan premik navzdol vse do 96,66 - 95,90

Komentarji (0)

Poslano: Sreda, 11th Marec 2009 Avtor: admin

EUR-USD
Pričakovan dvig vse od 1,2630 do 1,2808 ali 1,2566. Po dvigu sledi manjši padec, na katerega bodite pozorni zaradi skritih divergenc

USD-CHF
Dvig vse do območja 1,1627, po dvigu sledi padec vse pod mejo 1,1474

GBP-USD
Trenutni padec naj bi se končal v območju 1,361 - 1,3647. Zgornja meja naj bi se končala v območju 1,3826. Padec pod 1,3566 bo ta komentar preklical

USD-JPY
Korekcijski padec naj bi se končal v območju 98,58 ali 98,31

Komentarji (0)

Poslano: Ponedeljek, 9th Marec 2009 Avtor: admin

EUR-USD
Pričakovan dvig vse do 1,2584 ali celo do 1,2749. Po krajšem dvigu je pričakovan preobrat trenda

USD-CHF
Trenutni padec naj bi se končal v območju 1,148 - 1,5186. Pričakovan dvig vse do 1,1658 ali 1,1714. Padec pod 1,1370 naj bi ta scenarij preklical

GBP-USD
Čeprav je pod 1,4057 - 1,4139, je pričakovan padec pod območje 1,3974 ali 1,3875

USD-JPY
Prodaja vse do območja 97,08 ali celo do območja 95,87, kar je pričakovano

Komentarji (0)